شبکه تأمین و توزیع آب آشامیدنی جزء سرمایه‌ها و زیرساخت‌های کلیدی هر کشوری است و در مقابل حملات تروریستی آسیب‌پذیر هستند. با توجه به این مسئله در این پژوهش با ارائه روش تلفیقی (RAMCAP) و تحلیل سلسله مراتبی ( AHP) کل زیرساخت آبی شهر تهران ازلحاظ ریسک‌پذیری بررسی شد. پژوهش حاضر در زمره تحقیقات کاربردی (نوع توسعه‌ای) بوده و در این مسیر از روش پرسشنامه (کمی) جهت گردآوری و تحلیل اطلاعات استفاده گردیده است. برای این منظور تعداد 42 نفر کارشناس به‌عنوان خبره انتخاب گردید. نتایج نشان می‌دهد، ازنظر اهمیت دارایی‌ها، سد لتیان با دارا بودن عدد ارزش دارایی 1 حائز بیشترین ارزش است.. همچنین دوازده تهدید مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت که دراین‌بین حملات شیمیایی-میکروبی-هسته‌ای با عدد تهدید 1 بیشترین احتمال وقوع رادارد. بیشترین آسیب‌پذیری نیز مربوط به سد لتیان با عدد آسیب‌پذیری 0.931 است. ریسک‌پذیرترین دارایی نیز سد لتیان با عدد ریسک 0.931 در برابر حملات شیمیایی-میکروبی-هسته‌ای است.
The study of risk management of water and wastewater facilities using combined method AHP and RAMCAP
نویسندگان [English]
- -1؛ Majid Sheykhali2؛ Seyyed Shahab Emamzadeh3
1-
2Civil engineering Department, faculty of engineering, Kharazmi University
3civil engineering department, faculty of engineering,Kharazmi University
چکیده [English]
The supply and distribution network of drinking water is one of the key assets. Infrastructures are the major determinants of the survival of urbanization in today's world .These infrastructures are vulnerable to terrorist attacks . Access to safe drinking water is one of the vital needs of communities. Given the importance of water supply facilities, sometimes in the enemy's sabotage operation, these facilities are targeted as strategic centers, which may lead to serious damage to society and sometimes to security crises. Regarding this issue, in this research, the overall method of combining Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP) and Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with regard infrastructure of water risk in Tehran was investigated for risk aversion. The present research is an applied research (extension type). In this way, a questionnaire (quantitative) was used to collect and analyze information. The research method is descriptive-analytic. For this purpose, 42 experts were selected as experts. The results indicated that the importance of assets based on the three criteria of economic value, functional value, uniqueness of the Latyan dam and Amirkabir dam is the most valuable assets with values of 1 and 0.92, respectively. Twelve threats were also evaluated, with the highest probability of occurrence in the case of chemical-microbial-nuclear attacks and air and missile attacks based on three criteria: severity of damage, enemy's ability and threat history, respectively, with threat number of 1 and 0.89. The most vulnerable is the Letian dam according to the index of detection capability, target capability index, weakness index (military weapon vulnerability), recovery capability, secondary damage index , Water and life threatening), the combined effect index with a vulnerability of 0.931. The riskiest asset is the Latyan dam with a 0.931 risk number and Amir Kabir dam with a risk of 0.835 against chemical-microbial-nuclear attacks.
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