عنوان مقاله [English]
According to the development strategy, private sector participation in implementing and developing infrastructure projects led to further financing and increase the productivity of the economy. In the past, many developing countries were followed heavy investment plans to strengthen the infrastructure systems. These investments were aimed at reducing the external costs and the custom duties. The investment plans were led by the government or the governmental organizations and their source were financed by loans. The heavy costs of subsidies had caused the income earned from investments be insufficient so that it would be impossible to pay back the loans. Implementing control plans to prevent internal and external debt rose have done severe restrictions and pressures on many countries for investment in new infrastructure projects and even maintaining the built projects.
Infrastructure development is one of the major elements of economic development in countries. In the past few decades, theinfrastructure projects were financed through concession agreements. In the concession agreements, the private sector finances the project and the Return on Investment (ROI) is obtained through incomes for the franchise period. The long duration for implementing and the high amount for investing are considered as the characteristics of infrastructure projects. Therefore, estimating the cost of risk and financial analysis is one of the effective factors in the success of projects. This study presents a methodology for estimating the cost of risk by using the data from feasibility studies and probabilistic analysis by Monte Carlo method, which it has been considered as a result of inflation and the interest rate of loans. The results showed that the methodology was very effective in the financial evaluation of the tenders relating to the projects and the possibility of project failure reduced by increasing the economic stability during the construction period.