عنوان مقاله [English]
Methods of evaluating the liquefaction potential in sandy soil is generally based on deterministic analysis. In deterministic
analysis, parameters are considered precise, without variance and error. As well as using these methods, one is unable to make a connection between the probability of liquefaction occurance and the safety factor. This problem can be answered by reliability
analysis. In this paper, reliability analysis, based on the popular Seed'85 method of liquefaction evaluation, using standard penetration test results, is offered. Since this method requires quantifying uncertainty values in calculation, one can use the statistical moment of undeterministic parameters, such as the mean, variance and probability density function (PDF), for determination of the most probable uncertainties. Then, using the advanced, first-order second-moment (AFOSM) technique, the reliability index is calculated and the relation probability of liquefaction occurance, reliability index and safety factor are deduced. For analysis of the data, statistical regression is used to establish a relationship between earthquake characteristics, resistance and the potential of liquefaction occurance of the soil, based on the proposed method and 180 field records in the Babolsar region. A comparison between the proposed method and the previous method shows good agreement.