عنوان مقاله [English]
Low gasoline prices in Iran, as well as the high rate of car ownership, have been the main reasons behind increased air pollution, network congestion and other relevant problems in Iranian large cities for a number of years. As it is clear that relevant changes would affect individual mode of life choices and their resulted demand, the effects on the supply side are also noticeable. In this research, an attempt has been made to analyze the willingness to pay concept for gasoline prices and to investigate the effect on the fuel demand function. The stated preference data, gathered through a post-back method questionnaire, provided the required data for modeling the willingness to pay for gasoline prices for the city of Tehran. A one-stage ordered Probit and a two-stage (binary and ordered) Probit model have been calibrated in an extensive model development process.
From the results of the developed models, one can determine the societys willingness to bear the new gasoline price. The results of the willingness to pay models showed that high levels of education, professional status, age and ownership of expensive car models have positive effects on willingness to pay. The distance between origin and destination is the major variable that negatively affects a higher fuel price. The results also
indicate a rather higher willingness to pay in Iran (Tehran) compared with other countries. No significant difference was observed between the one-stage and the two-stage modeling processes.