عنوان مقاله [English]
Transportation demand management policies are of the most important ways to reduce traffic congestion in cities and make transport infrastructures more efficient. One of the important policies in this field is congestion pricing, which has been considered by various researchers to estimate and predict its effects, including modal shift. In the present study, the effects of a new pricing policy on the traffic area of Tehran city, namely, the acquisition of hourly basis tolls from personal vehicles entering this area, are studied. In this regard, stated preference information was received from 1588 users of this city-wide area that could use personal vehicles for traffic in the area, through in-person interviews. In order to model their behavior in the face of the new pricing policy (hourly basis), multiple logit model was used. According to the results of the calibrated models, with the implementation of the 2000-Tomans hourly scenario, about 22% of people entering the area with personal vehicles are going to shift their travelling mode to other modes including: public (metro / bus), taxi, snap, and motorcycle. Of this, about 12% of people prefer the public transportation and will increase the share of this mode on daily trips. The Traffic Estimator's elasticity Analysis showed that with an increase of 1% in the average cost of the traffic plan in the utility function of the alternatives for changing the way of travel and other changes (cancellation of travel, change of destination to outside the range, travel deferring to the weekend), the probability of choosing these alternatives increases 0.77% and 0.61%, respectively. Furthermore, based on the analysis of the marginal effects of the traffic plan price variable, with an increase of 1,000 Tomans of the average cost of the traffic plan in alternatives’ utility function for changing the way of travel and other changes, the probability of choosing these alternatives increases by 0.013 and 0.005, respectively.